Examining The Flooding Effects In Gambia Environmental Sciences Essay

Examining The Flooding Effects In Gambia Environmental Sciences Essay Floods have been a major natural disaster, affecting the Gambia over the last decade. It effects has been a cause for concern, because the Gambia is situated in the low lying coast and it has a low capacity in resolving the problems on floods. As a result of the rising sea levels, along with excess rainfall and high tides, the Gambias river reaches its flood stage, causing flooding and inundation. According to UNFCCC (2007), the Gambia is part of the worlds most vulnerable countries, that are prone to the effects of sea level rise and the countrys has a few resources to reduce the risks, it poses for the future. The aim of this report is to understand the impacts of sea level rise on river flood and also, to understand its consequences for the flood risk management in Gambia. Geography and Demography The Gambia, being the smallest country in the African continent, has an area of 11,000 km (NEA, 2010). Studies from the UNEP(no date) claim that, about one third of its surface area is covered by the Gambias river with marsh lands along its banks. Its river originates from the Futa Djallon highlands in Guinea, bisecting the country into a narrow strip of land, approximately 400 km long and 30 km wide on both sides of Gambia (see Figure 1). Gambia is bordered on all sides, by the Republic of Senegal and on the west, by the Atlantic Ocean (GOTG, 2008). Figure 1: Map of the Gambia ( Jaiteh and Saho, 2006) Climate and population The Gambias climate is known to be subtropical, with dry seasons from November to May, and wet seasons from June to October. Rainfalls and tides are known to be the key factors that influence the rivers flows, as the rainfall ranges from 850-1,200 mm per annum (NEA,2010). However, over the past decades, there has been massive outbreaks of drought due to low rainfall patterns. As a result, relatively little vegetation cover, has increased the vulnerability of severe floods, because of inadequate permeable surfaces. During the wet seasons, the excess rainfalls, is the period when the overflow of the river banks and into the floodplains, reaches its peak (GOTG, 2008). The Gambias population is now estimated at 1.36 million (Jaiteh and Saho, 2006) with a density of over 130 persons/km2 (UNDP, 2000). A study by Columbia University(2007) claim that almost 62% of the population, residing outside the 10 meter elevation of the coastal areas, are at risk of coastal flooding, and they are susceptible to the effects from sea level rise(see Figure 2). Also 14% of the population, living in the upper river division and the 13% of the population living in the Central river division are those, under greatest threat of river flooding. Figure 2: Population density map(Columbia Univeristy,2007) The countrys geomorphology is made up of its river, which divides the country into two separate forms of a plateau. The lower valley is up to a total land area of 39 percent and its swamps are prone to floods, thus it is only 2 km away from the river ( Jaiteh, 2008). Jaiteh (2008) states that, the countrys highest land heights are in the east of the country, although they are not above 60 meters. The areas shaded in green are those that are more prone to river floods, hence it is less than ten meters above mean sea level (see Figure 3). Correspondingly, the river flow is up to 30 percent below 10 meters above mean sea level and up to 20 percent during flood seasons (NEA, 2010) Figure 3: Elevation Map of The Gambia (Jaiteh, 2003) Flooding in The Gambia Flooding has been the most common hazard, which affected people throughout the world. Annually, 75million people are affected by flood related disasters (Coppola,2011). In Gambia, the national disaster management agency (2008-2011) reported that between 2002 and 2006, there have been 65 flood events. Human activities add to the vulnerability of flood prone areas, especially in the north bank division, deforestation and poor farming tends to reduce the soils ability to hold the flood waters, and this causes more runoffs and erosion (NEA, 2010). Floods can be considered as natural occurrence, rather than pinning it on the effects from climate change. Knuckman (2011) states that, as the catchment reaches its excess water levels, its loses its ability to restore this excess water and then flooding arises. In addition to that, Cooper and Pilkey (2004) believe that other factor listed below also contributes to the factors that trigger floods. There are three main factors that influence river floods are: Sea level Forcing: Due to the high rations between the width and length of the river estuary, Jaiteh and Sarr (2011) have claimed that, sea level rise will increase towards the inner part of the river estuary and this applies to the river Gambia due to it land along the river is flat. Wind forcing: The wind pressure has a huge impact on the water level. Reports from the Gambias meteorology office reveal that, during the last 10 years, there has been a 25cm difference in the water levels between the rainy and the dry season, due to shifts of wind speed. During the rainy season, the forces of the wind has a higher load over the rivers surface Tributary forcing: The rivers mean discharge ranges from 460-90 m3 (Leseck et al, 1980)and the impacts of the severe stream flows affects the rivers tributaries, increasing pressure on the rivers pressure.. Surface evaporation is expected to increase, and this can place additional constraints on management rules of an upstream reservoir in the country. Also, integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) institutions faces problems associated with the water floods from sea level rise, as drainage congestion increases the height of flood levels. During wet seasons, when excess precipitation triggers the river to reach its flood stage, causing the flooded water to flow to the flood plains and unto the land (GOTG, 2008). In1999 and 2003, there was a serious flood event that occurred in Upper River and Central River Regions, affecting 13.1% of the countrys population (National disaster management agency2008-2011). The Gambias has developed a national disaster management agency in 1996, as a response strategy, to provide emergency assistance; rescue, relief and precautionary operations, for all the disasters in the country. Under this agency, there has been a framework called the strategic action plan, which provides a pathway on what actions and mechanisms to be undertaken for an effective disaster management for the Gambia. For instance, in terms of precautionary strategies of floods, this management agency provides sand bags, as flood proofing against the flood water levels during the rainy seasons. Although this process has not been effective, because during the recent floods (1999 and 2003), the forces of the flood waters has exceeded the capacity of those existing sand bags over the recent years (GOTG, 2008). A case study event: July 2010 floodings (Jaiteh and sarr 2011) In September 2010, there was an extreme flood event from heavy rainfalls; affecting 1,000 and 790 people were displaced. The National Red Cross provided financial support on those affected, whilst Red Crescent societies, were responsible for the emergency rescue and rehabilitation aid (DREF, 2010) Jallow et al(1996) carried out a research of a one meter sea level rise scenario on the coastal zone. He concluded that, 1m rise in sea level due to flooding would lead to a total land loss of 92 km ² in Banjul, because its elevation , and Banjul is built on a low lying sand spit (see Figure 4). An estimated total cost of 217 million US Dollars, worth of land could be lost, including the mangroves on St. Marys Island, and along the river banks in the north bank divisions (National Climate Committee Banjul, 2003). Figure 4: Areas susceptible of flooding with a 1 meter sea level rise (GOTG, 2007) The Gambia government has also formulated a national adaptation program of action on (NAPA) on climate change, which is under the administration of the UNFCCC. This framework was signed by the Gambia in June 2001, as a means of developing adaptations to climate change and also, to attain preventive schemes for natural disasters such as floods (Jaiteh and Sarr, 2011). Currently, there have been no existing engineering flood defenses in place, against the prevention of floods in the Gambia. According to executive director of the National disaster management agency, claimed that inadequate resources and low funding has been the countrys main stumbling block, in generating effective flood protection structures such as embankments and dykes. Mr Khan, further went on to say that, there has been ten contingency action plans, funded by the World Bank in 1998 to enhance sustainable actions for their flood risk management strategy. Effects of sea level rising in Gambia The sea level is rising due to an increased temperature from the atmosphere; which causes thermal expansions in the oceans and the melting of the ice caps( Gehrels and Long, 2008). This outcome increases the water level of the sea to rise. Reports from IPCCC(2007) claimed, that global sea level is likely to increase by 18 cm to 59 cm by 2100. In Gambia, it is believed that the sea levels could rise by 15cm to 95 cm by 2100 (UNFCCC,2007). This means that, if global warming is not monitored , the challenges of coping with extreme flood will perpetuate, which will cause future constraints to the Gambias disaster management agency. This outcome of global warming, threatens the risk of potential rivers flooding at an alarming rate in the future if there is not reduction in greenhouse gases. Rising sea levels, inundates the coastal zone, due to its low lying feature the Capital city Banjul is vulnerable to flooding it is less than one meter above mean sea level (see figure 3). It is believed that the relationship between the effects of sea level rise, is caused by the changing climate conditions and the natural occurrence of the river (Hunt,2000). For instance, at the rivers estuary, the rising water level from the sea, with heavy precipitation during the wet season increase the risks of flooding in the rivers floodplains (National Disaster Management Agency, 2008-2011). On the other hand, Jallow et al (1996) reveals that, high tides on the river estuaries, influenced by the westerly winds has also been a major factor why the river Gambia floods. Unfortunately, the tide record recorder has not been in function over the past years, for further analysis (see Table 1) Table 1: Tidal recorder table: Water levels from tide records taken in Banjul, from 1979 to 1993(Jallow et al 1996) The tide recorder above shows that, the water level has remained constant about two meters between 1979-1984, and towards the late 1980s due to low tides, there has been drastic shift between 1988 till 1993. Evidence of the high water levels can be seen in 1980, when huge river floods occurred in the central river division, accompany with heavy storm surges (Jallow et al, 1996). Conversely the NEA (2000) claimed that the tidal currents mostly influences floods in the river estuary than the coastline, thus are weaker by the coastline; Banjul, and higher up to1m/s in the rivers estuary. Figure 3: Current Elevation of Banjul (Jallow et al, 1999) Response strategies The Disaster agency mainly undertakes a disaster response and risk reduction system, than a disaster prevention scheme. In 2007, the agency formulated a risk reduction policy, called a hazards Profile of the Gambia and its Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Report, to identify the hazards, and the potential threats it poses to the country to the country (National Disaster Management Agency 2008-2011). In 2008 the Gambia government developed a National Disaster Management Act which stressed, that the all adaptation and precautionary measures undertaken for flood preventions must be effective and capable to serve long-term purposes. Thus in the event of the 2003 flooding in Central River Division (CRD), the practical early warnings has not been efficient in alerting people before floods occurs. In the 2003 event, it was unreliable because it did not reach the entire region. Therefore, a change in its the response strategy of the monitoring systems. Post 2003 the government proposes to produce a more resourceful flood risk management plan that consists of geospatial informations to improve the monitoring services to produce positive effective warning systems. There has been a proposal to develop a mapping program to manage the rivers floodplains along central river division (NEA, 2010). Currently the UNDP in the collaboration of a National disaster management program provides project guidelines on, 1. How to review of early warning systems, 2. How to analyze management systems, in precautionary measures and 3. The provision of regular feedbacks to those responsible stakeholders (NEA, 2010). International response The United nations has recommended to the local government to develop artificial channels such as canals and build dams as mechanisms against flood. More over, the government has been has been reluctant, on these developments, especially dams, as they can cause the changes in the course of the river and its establishment, has not been financially viable. The UNDP support to the Gambia on floods, encourages a capacity building approach, in which grassroots development, enhances the local community with skills on planting mangroves around there neighborhood, as preparation plans to deal with the flood waters before flood occurrence (UNDP,2000). Recently, the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) provided technical support to the Gambias assessment of the national institutional framework for the national program of Action. This was not been supportive because it has not clearly indicate areas prone to river flooding, induced sea level rise, to provide accurate analysis on research to cope with the risks from both sea level and flooding. Furthermore, the nonexistence of physical flood defenses against flood preventions, and this has been the why vulnerability increases of the countrys liability to floods (NEA, 2010). LONG-TERM plans and Recommendations Construction of physical defenses It is significant to build a low cost seawall or a bulkhead to cope with the effects of sea level and floods along the coastline. The seawall has a 1:2 slope, a 2-metre beam and a height above water of 1.2 times sea level rise scenario. This would protect the coastline where there land is less than one meter above mean sea level, along Banjul area, by the mangrove systems. It is adequate to use dikes made up of about 1.5 to 2 meter to control the water levels (NEA, 2010) Wetland preservation and mitigation The estuary of the Gambia River contains economically important wetlands and mangrove systems. The mangrove systems on the Kombo St. Mary Island and Kombo Peninsular are regarded as vital breeding grounds for various aquatic species. Efforts should be made to protect these areas by declaring them as protected wetlands. This would discourage exploitation of the resources in these wetlands. This can examine the impacts of upstream dams on the Gambia River in terms of reduced sediment supply. Effects of sea level rise on flood risk management The constraints that the rising sea level has on flood risk management affects the Gambias land use planning and the water resource management. There is the need to increase the use of floodplains against floods, and also development the rivers basin. Water resource management In producing a better river basin, flood management need to identify the connection of the rivers flowing patters. The Gambias integrated water resource management ensures that the water quality is being preserved, and dams and wells are protected against contamination of the flood waters. When river flooding occurs, the major problems arises from drainage congestion and these are regarded as the significant effects of raising water levels on flood risk management Land use planning The Gambia needs to map out the most vulnerable locations of flood risks, to enable accurate impact assessments, between land-use planning and the protection of the infrastructures. Also, the contingency plan should include flood scenarios that are beyond the projected situation, in order to increase its management capacities.The lands office and physical planning should avoid the allocation of lands that are susceptible of flooding. For instance dried up streams in kombo peninsular, consists of new settlements, and has recently flooded during the rainy seasons. People residing at areas prone to flooding should be advice to raise their gate above the mean flood levels. Conclusion It can be concluded that, the impacts of rising sea levels will continue to increase the risk of flooding across the country, if the preventive systems are not enhanced productively in the future. This is because, the Gambia focus all their attention on the response systems, than prevention systems of floods and the effects of sea level rise, rather than tackling the root causes of the problems, and then finding means of preventing its occurrence. Lack of appropriate data has been a stumbling block in producing the accurate findings, for effective risk management systems. Although, Gambia has been classified as a net sink country, the amount of greenhouse gases eliminate from the atmosphere is more than those produced (NEA, 2010). Yet it is been severely affected by the global climate change effects over the last decade. Its management systems undertake an integrated approach, such as policy formulations and contingency plans, rather than establishing of physical defenses. To sum it up, the most important method to manage the effects of sea level rise on floods is to reconstruct those groynes(trunks of rhun palm inserted into the sea) in Banjul to capture those sediments transported during erosion (see Figure 5). The construction dikes, can possible be, one of the most efficient form of flood defences. Also, catchment flood management strategy can be an essential tool in providing a sustainable protection on managing flood risks. The facilitation of a catchment flood management plan will enable the Gambia, to benefit from the understanding flood risks of the river Gambia, in order to tackle its consequences efficiently. In this way, the national disaster management and the rest of the stakeholders will undertake a more technical style towards their flood management plan. In addition to that, there has been poor records to verify flood magnitudes and its frequency and if this was available, there will be allocation, there will be accurate analysis that can provide inappropriate technique to manage future flood risk managements for the Gambia.A corporation that brings together the efforts of the local government, UN agencies, NGOs, civil Society and local communities is the most effective form of a achieving a sustainable flood management strategy would create an inclusive disaster management framework in the country and to improve governments capacities to manage and counter to floods effectively. Received feed back: supervisor wants me to provide a picture of a dikes, as I have written in my conclusion that, it cal be the most effective form of flood risk of management. Please run this thru your plagiarism website for me. I am in Uni working on my powerpoint slides

Zoe’s Tale PART III Chapter Twenty-One

The next morning I found out Dad was under arrest. â€Å"It's not exactly arrest,† Dad said at our kitchen table, having his morning coffee. â€Å"I've been relieved of my position as colony leader and have to travel back to Phoenix Station for an inquiry. So it's more like a trial. And if that goes badly then I'll be arrested.† â€Å"Is it going to go badly?† I asked. â€Å"Probably,† Dad said. â€Å"They don't usually have an inquiry if they don't know how it's going to turn out, and if it was going to turn out well, they wouldn't bother to have it.† He sipped his coffee. â€Å"What did you do?† I asked. I had my own coffee, loaded up with cream and sugar, which was sitting ignored in front of me. I was still in shock about Enzo, and this really wasn't helping. â€Å"I tried to talk General Gau out of walking into the trap we set for him and his fleet,† Dad said. â€Å"When we met I asked him not to call his fleet. Begged him not to, actually. It was against my orders. I was told to engage in ‘nonessential conversation' with him. As if you can have nonessential conversation with someone who is planning to take over your colony, and whose entire fleet you're about to blow up.† â€Å"Why did you do it?† I asked. â€Å"Why did you try to give General Gau an out?† â€Å"I don't know,† Dad said. â€Å"Probably because I didn't want the blood of all those crews on my hands.† â€Å"You weren't the one who set off the bombs,† I said. â€Å"I don't think that matters, do you?† Dad said. He set down his cup. â€Å"I was still part of the plan. I was still an active participant. I still bear some responsibility. I wanted to know that at the very least I tried in some small way to avoid so much bloodshed. I guess I was just hoping there might be a way to do things other than the way that ends up with everyone getting killed.† I got up out of my chair and gave my dad a big hug. He took it, and then looked at me, a little surprised, when I sat back down. â€Å"Thank you,† he said. â€Å"I'd like to know what that was about.† â€Å"It was me being happy that we think alike,† I said. â€Å"I can tell we're related, even if it's not biologically.† â€Å"I don't think anyone would doubt we think alike, dear,† Dad said. â€Å"Although given that I'm about to get royally shafted by the Colonial Union, I'm not sure it's such a good thing for you.† â€Å"I think it is,† I said. â€Å"And biology or not, I think we're both smart enough to figure out that things are not going well for anyone,† Dad said. â€Å"This is a real big mess, nor are we out of it.† â€Å"Amen,† I said. â€Å"How are you, sweetheart?† Dad asked. â€Å"Are you going to be okay?† I opened my mouth to say something and closed it again. â€Å"I think right now I want to talk about anything else in the world besides how I'm doing,† I said, finally. â€Å"All right,† Dad said. He started talking about himself then, not because he was an egotist but because he knew listening to him would help me take my mind off my own worries. I listened to him talk on without worrying too much about what he said. Dad left on the supply ship San Joaquin the next day, with Manfred Trujillo and a couple other colonists who were going as representatives of Roanoke, on political and cultural business. That was their cover, anyway. What they were really doing, or so Jane had told me, was trying to find out anything about what was going on in the universe involving Roanoke and who had attacked us. It would take a week for Dad and the others to reach Phoenix Station; they'd spend a day or so there and then it would take another week for them to return. Which is to say, it'd take another week for everyone but Dad to return; if Dad's inquiry went against him, he wouldn't be coming back. We tried not to think about that. Three days later most of the colony converged on the Gugino homestead and said good-bye to Bruno and Natalie, Maria, Katherina, and Enzo. They were buried where they had died; Jane and others had removed the missile debris that had fallen on them, reshaped the area with new soil, and set new sod on top. A marker was placed to note the family. At some point in the future, there might be another, larger marker, but for now it was small and simple: the family name, the name of the members, and their dates. It reminded me of my own family marker, where my biological mother lay. For some reason I found this a little bit comforting. Magdy's father, who had been Bruno Gugino's closest friend, spoke warmly about the whole family. A group of singers came and sang two of Natalie's favorite hymns from Zhong Guo. Magdy spoke, briefly and with difficulty about his best friend. When he sat back down, Gretchen was there to hold him while he sobbed. Finally we all stood and some prayed and others stood silently, with their heads bowed, thinking about missing friends and loved ones. Then people left, until it was just me and Gretchen and Magdy, standing silently by the marker. â€Å"He loved you, you know,† Magdy said to me, suddenly. â€Å"I know,† I said. â€Å"No,† Magdy said, and I saw how he was trying to get across to me that he wasn't just making comforting words. â€Å"I'm not talking about how we say we love something, or love people we just like. He really loved you, Zoe. He was ready to spend his whole life with you. I wish I could make you believe this.† I took out my PDA, opened it to Enzo's poem, and showed it to Magdy. â€Å"I believe it,† I said. Magdy read the poem, nodded. Then he handed the PDA back to me. â€Å"I'm glad,† he said. â€Å"I'm glad he sent that to you. I used to make fun of him because he wrote you those poems. I told him that he was just being a goof.† I smiled at that. â€Å"But now I'm glad he didn't listen to me. I'm glad he sent them. Because now you know. You know how much he loved you.† Magdy broke down as he tried to finish that sentence. I came up to him and held him and let him cry. â€Å"He loved you too, Magdy,† I said to him. â€Å"As much as me. As much as anyone. You were his best friend.† â€Å"I loved him too,† Magdy said. â€Å"He was my brother. I mean, not my real brother†¦Ã¢â‚¬  He started to get a look on his face; he was annoyed with himself that he wasn't expressing himself like he wanted. â€Å"No, Magdy,† I said. â€Å"You were his real brother. In every way that matters, you were his brother. He knew you thought of him that way. And he loved you for it.† â€Å"I'm sorry, Zoe,† Magdy said, and looked down at his feet. â€Å"I'm sorry I always gave you and Enzo a hard time. I'm sorry.† â€Å"Hey,† I said, gently. â€Å"Stop that. You were supposed to give us a hard time, Magdy. Giving people a hard time is what you do. Ask Gretchen.† â€Å"It's true,† Gretchen said, not unkindly. â€Å"It really is.† â€Å"Enzo thought of you as his brother,† I said. â€Å"You're my brother too. You have been all this time. I love you, Magdy.† â€Å"I love you too, Zoe,† Magdy said quietly, and then looked straight at me. â€Å"Thank you.† â€Å"You're welcome.† I gave him another hug. â€Å"Just remember that as your new family member I'm now entitled to give you all sorts of crap.† â€Å"I can't wait,† Magdy said, and then turned to Gretchen. â€Å"Does this make you my sister too?† â€Å"Considering our history, you better hope not,† Gretchen said. Magdy laughed at that, which was a good sign, then gave me a peck on a cheek, gave Gretchen a hug, and then walked from the grave of his friend and brother. â€Å"Do you think he's going to be okay?† I asked Gretchen, as we watched him go. â€Å"No,† Gretchen said. â€Å"Not for a long time. I know you loved Enzo, Zoe, I really do, and I don't want this to sound like I'm trying to undercut that. But Enzo and Magdy were two halves of the same whole.† She nodded to Magdy. â€Å"You lost someone you love. He's lost part of himself. I don't know if he's going to get over that.† â€Å"You can help him,† I said. â€Å"Maybe,† Gretchen said. â€Å"But think about what you're asking me to do.† I laughed. It's why I loved Gretchen. She was the smartest girl I ever knew, and smart enough to know that being smart had its own repercussions. She could help Magdy, all right, by becoming part of what he was missing. But it meant her being that, one way or another, for the rest of their lives. She would do it, because when it came down to it she really did love Magdy. But she was right to worry about what it meant for her. â€Å"Anyway,† Gretchen said, â€Å"I'm not done helping someone else.† I snapped out of my thoughts at that. â€Å"Oh,† I said. â€Å"Well. You know. I'm okay.† â€Å"I know,† Gretchen said. â€Å"I also know you lie horribly.† â€Å"I can't fool you,† I said. â€Å"No,† Gretchen said. â€Å"Because what Enzo was to Magdy, I am to you.† I hugged her. â€Å"I know,† I said. â€Å"Good,† Gretchen said. â€Å"Whenever you forget, I'll remind you.† â€Å"Okay,† I said. We unhugged and Gretchen left me alone with Enzo and his family, and I sat with them for a long time. Four days later, a note from Dad from a skip drone from Phoenix Station. A miracle, it said. I'm not headed for prison. We are heading back on the next supply ship. Tell Hickory and Dickory that I will need to speak to them when I return. Love you. There was another note for Jane, but she didn't tell me what was in it. â€Å"Why would Dad want to talk to you?† I asked Hickory. â€Å"We don't know,† Hickory said. â€Å"The last time he and I spoke of anything of any importance was the day – I am sorry – that your friend Enzo died. Some time ago, before we left Huckleberry, I had mentioned to Major Perry that the Obin government and the Obin people stood ready to assist you and your family here on Roanoke should you need our assistance. Major Perry reminded me of that conversation and asked me if the offer still stood. I told him that at the time I believed it did.† â€Å"You think Dad is going to ask for your help?† I asked. â€Å"I do not know,† Hickory said. â€Å"And since I last spoke to Major Perry circumstances have changed.† â€Å"What do you mean?† I asked. â€Å"Dickory and I have finally received detailed updated information from our government, up to and including its analysis of the Colonial Union's attack on the Conclave fleet,† Hickory said. â€Å"The most important piece of news is that we have been informed that shortly after the Magellan disappeared, the Colonial Union came to the Obin government and asked it not to search for the Roanoke colony, nor to offer it assistance if it were to be located by the Conclave or any other race.† â€Å"They knew you would come looking for me,† I said. â€Å"Yes,† Hickory said. â€Å"But why would they tell you not to help us?† I asked. â€Å"Because it would interfere with the Colonial Union's own plans to lure the Conclave fleet to Roanoke,† Hickory said. â€Å"That's happened,† I said. â€Å"That's done. The Obin can help us now,† I said. â€Å"The Colonial Union has asked us to continue not to offer aid or assistance to Roanoke,† Hickory said. â€Å"That makes no sense,† I said. â€Å"We are inclined to agree,† Hickory said. â€Å"But that means that you can't even help me,† I said. â€Å"There is a difference between you and the colony of Roanoke,† Hickory said. â€Å"The Colonial Union cannot ask us not to protect or assist you. It would violate the treaty between our peoples, and the Colonial Union would not want to do that, especially now. But the Colonial Union may choose to interpret the treaty narrowly and has. Our treaty concerns you, Zoe. To a much lesser extent it concerns your family, meaning Major Perry and Lieutenant Sagan. It does not concern Roanoke colony at all.† â€Å"It does when I live here,† I said. â€Å"This colony is of a great deal of concern to me. Its people are of a great deal of concern to me. Everybody I care about in the whole universe is here. Roanoke matters to me. It should matter to you.† â€Å"We did not say it did not matter to us,† Hickory said, and I heard something in its voice I had never heard before: reproach. â€Å"Nor do we suggest it does not matter to you, for many reasons. We are telling you how the Colonial Union is asking the Obin government to view its rights under treaty. And we are telling you that our government, for its own reasons, has agreed.† â€Å"So if my dad asks for your help, you will tell him no,† I said. â€Å"We will tell him that so long as Roanoke is a Colonial Union world, we are unable to offer help.† â€Å"So, no,† I said. â€Å"Yes,† Hickory said. â€Å"We are sorry, Zoe.† â€Å"I want you to give me the information your government has given you,† I said. â€Å"We will do so,† Hickory said. â€Å"But it is in our native language and file formatting, and will take a considerable amount of time for your PDA to translate.† â€Å"I don't care,† I said. â€Å"As you wish,† Hickory said. Not too long after that I stared at the screen of my PDA and ground my teeth together as it slowly plodded through file transformations and translations. I realized it would be easier just to ask Hickory and Dickory about it all, but I wanted to see it all with my own eyes. However long it took. It took long enough that I had hardly read any of it by the time Dad and the others had made it home. â€Å"This all looks like gibberish to me,† Gretchen said, looking at the documents I was showing her on my PDA. â€Å"It's like it was translated from monkey or something.† â€Å"Look,† I said. I pulled up a different document. â€Å"According to this, blowing up the Conclave fleet backfired. It was supposed to make the Conclave collapse and all the races start shooting at each other. Well, the Conclave is starting to collapse, but hardly any of them are actually fighting each other. They're attacking Colonial Union worlds instead. They really messed this up.† â€Å"If you say this is what it says, I'm going to believe you,† Gretchen said. â€Å"I'm not actually finding verbs here.† I pulled up another document. â€Å"Here, this is about a Conclave leader named Nerbros Eser. He's General Gau's main competition for leadership of the Conclave now. Gau still doesn't want to attack the Colonial Union directly, even though we just destroyed his fleet. He still thinks the Conclave is strong enough to keep doing what it's been doing. But this Eser guy thinks the Conclave should just wipe us out. The Colonial Union. And especially us here on Roanoke. Just to make the point that you don't mess with the Conclave. The two of them are fighting over control of the Conclave right now.† â€Å"Okay,† Gretchen said. â€Å"But I still don't know what any of this means, Zoe. Speak not-hyper-ese to me. You're losing me.† I stopped and took a breath. Gretchen was right. I'd spent most of the last day reading these documents, drinking coffee, and not sleeping; I was not at the peak of my communication skills. So I tried again. â€Å"The whole point of founding Roanoke colony was to start a war,† I said. â€Å"It looks like it worked,† Gretchen said. â€Å"No,† I said. â€Å"It was supposed to start a war within the Conclave. Blowing up their fleet was supposed to tear the Conclave apart from the inside. It would end the threat of this huge coalition of alien races and bring things back to the way it was before, when every race was fighting every other race. We trigger a civil war, and then we sweep in while they're all fighting and scoop up the worlds we want and come out of it all stronger than before – maybe too strong for any one race or even a small group of races to square off against. That was the plan.† â€Å"But you're telling me it didn't work that way,† Gretchen said. â€Å"Right,† I said. â€Å"We blew up the fleet and got the Conclave members fighting, but who they're fighting is us. The reason we didn't like the Conclave is that it was four hundred against one, the one being us. Well, now it's still four hundred against one, except now no one's listening to the one guy who was keeping them from engaging in total war against us.† â€Å"Us here on Roanoke,† Gretchen said. â€Å"Us everywhere,† I said. â€Å"The Colonial Union. Humans. Us. This is happening now,† I said. â€Å"Colonial Union worlds are being attacked. Not just the new colony worlds, the ones that usually get attacked. Even the established colonies – the ones that haven't been attacked in decades – are getting hit. And unless General Gau gets them all back in line, these attacks are going to keep happening. They're going to get worse.† â€Å"I think you need a new hobby,† Gretchen said, handing me back my PDA. â€Å"Your new one here is really depressing.† â€Å"I'm not trying to scare you,† I said. â€Å"I thought you would want to know about all this.† â€Å"You don't have to tell me,† Gretchen said. â€Å"You need to tell your parents. Or my dad. Someone who actually knows what to do about all this.† â€Å"They already know,† I said. â€Å"I heard John and Jane talking about it last night after he got back from Phoenix Station. Everyone there knows the colonies are under attack. No one's reporting it – the Colonial Union has a lockdown on the news – but everyone's talking about it.† â€Å"What does that leave for Roanoke?† Gretchen said. â€Å"I don't know,† I said. â€Å"But I know we don't have a lot of pull right now.† â€Å"So we're all going to die,† Gretchen said. â€Å"Well. Gee. Thanks, Zoe. I'm really glad to know it.† â€Å"It's not that bad yet,† I said. â€Å"Our parents are working on it. They'll figure it out. We're not all going to die.† â€Å"Well, you're not going to die, at least,† Gretchen said. â€Å"What does that mean?† I asked. â€Å"If things really go swirling, the Obin will swoop in and take you out of here,† Gretchen said. â€Å"Although if all of the Colonial Union is really under attack, I'm not sure where you're going to end up going. But the point is, you have an escape route. The rest of us don't.† I stared at Gretchen. â€Å"That's incredibly unfair,† I said. â€Å"I'm not going anywhere, Gretchen.† â€Å"Why?† Gretchen said. â€Å"I'm not angry at you that you have a way out, Zoe. I'm envious. I've been through one attack. Just one missile got through and it didn't even explode properly, and it still did incredible damage and killed someone I care about and everyone in his family. When they come for us for real, we don't have a chance.† â€Å"You still have your training,† I said. â€Å"I'm not going to be able to engage in single combat with a missile, Zoe,† Gretchen said, annoyed. â€Å"Yes, if someone decides to have a landing party here, I might be able to fight them off for a while. But after what we've done to that Conclave fleet, do you think anyone is really going to bother? They're just going to blow us up from the sky. You said it yourself. They want to be rid of us. And you're the only one that has a chance of getting out of here.† â€Å"I already said I'm not going anywhere,† I said. â€Å"Jesus, Zoe,† Gretchen said. â€Å"I love you, I really do, but I can't believe you're actually that dumb. If you have a chance to go, go. I don't want you to die. Your mom and dad don't want it. The Obin will hack a path through all the rest of us to keep you from dying. I think you should take the hint.† â€Å"I get the hint,† I said. â€Å"But you don't understand. I've been the sole survivor, Gretchen. It's happened to me before. Once is enough for any lifetime. I'm not going anywhere.† â€Å"Hickory and Dickory want you to leave Roanoke,† Dad said to me, after he had paged me with his PDA. Hickory and Dickory were standing in the living room with him. I was clearly coming in on some sort of negotiation between them. And it was also clearly about me. The tone of Dad's voice was light enough that I could tell he was hoping to make some point to the Obin, and I was pretty sure I knew what the point was. â€Å"Are you and Mom coming?† I said. â€Å"No,† Dad said. This I expected. Whatever was going to happen with the colony, both John and Jane would see it through, even if it meant they would die with it. It's what they expected of themselves as colony leaders, as former soldiers, and as human beings. â€Å"Then to hell with that,† I said. I looked at Hickory and Dickory when I said it. â€Å"Told you,† Dad said to Hickory. â€Å"You didn't tell her to come away,† Hickory said. â€Å"Go away, Zoe,† Dad said. This was said with such a sarcastic delivery that even Hickory and Dickory couldn't miss it. I gave a less-than-entirely-polite response to that, and then to Hickory and Dickory, and then, for good measure, to the whole idea that I was something special to the Obin. Because I was feeling saucy, and also because I was tired of the whole thing. â€Å"If you want to protect me,† I said to Hickory, â€Å"then protect this colony. Protect the people I care about.† â€Å"We cannot,† Hickory said. â€Å"We are forbidden to do so.† â€Å"Then you have a problem,† I said, â€Å"because I'm not going anywhere. And there's nothing you or anyone else can do about it.† And then I left, dramatically, partly because I think that was what Dad was expecting, and partly because I was done saying what I wanted to say on the matter. Then I went to my room and waited for Dad to call me again. Because whatever was going on between him and Hickory and Dickory, it wasn't over when I stomped out of the room. And like I said, whatever it was, was clearly about me. About ten minutes later Dad called for me again. I went back into the living room. Hickory and Dickory were gone. â€Å"Sit down, Zoe, please,† Dad said. â€Å"I need you to do something for me.† â€Å"Does it involve leaving Roanoke?† I asked. â€Å"It does,† Dad said. â€Å"No,† I said. â€Å"Zoe,† Dad said. â€Å"No,† I said again. â€Å"And I don't understand you. Ten minutes ago you were happy to have me stand here in front of Hickory and Dickory and tell them I wasn't going anywhere, and now you want me to leave? What did they tell you to make you change your mind?† â€Å"It's what I told them,† Dad said. â€Å"And I haven't changed my mind. I need you to go, Zoe.† â€Å"For what?† I said. â€Å"So I can stay alive while everyone I care about dies? You and Mom and Gretchen and Magdy? So I can be saved when Roanoke is destroyed?† â€Å"I need you to go so I can save Roanoke,† Dad said. â€Å"I don't understand,† I said. â€Å"That's probably because you didn't actually let me finish before you got on your soapbox,† Dad said. â€Å"Don't mock me,† I said. Dad sighed. â€Å"I'm not trying to mock you, Zoe. But what I really need from you right now is to be quiet so I can tell you about this. Can you do that, please? It will make things go a lot more quickly. Then if you say no, at least you'll be saying no for the right reasons. All right?† â€Å"All right,† I said. â€Å"Thank you,† Dad said. â€Å"Look. Right now all of the Colonial Union is under attack because we destroyed the Conclave fleet. Every CU world has been hit. The Colonial Defense Forces are strained as it is, and it's going to get worse. A lot worse. The Colonial Union is already making decisions about what colonies it can afford to lose when push comes to shove.† â€Å"And Roanoke is one of those,† I said. â€Å"Yes,† Dad said. â€Å"Very definitely. But it's more than that, Zoe. There was a possibility that I might have been able to ask the Obin to help us here on Roanoke. Because you were here. But the Colonial Union has told the Obin not to help us at all. They can take you from here, but they can't help you or us defend Roanoke. The Colonial Union doesn't want them to help us.† â€Å"Why not?† I asked. â€Å"That doesn't make any sense.† â€Å"It doesn't make sense if you assume the Colonial Union wants Roanoke to survive,† Dad said. â€Å"But look at it another way, Zoe. This is the first colony with colonists from the CU rather than Earth. The settlers here are from the ten most powerful and most populous Colonial Union worlds. If Roanoke is destroyed, all ten of those worlds are going to be hit hard by the loss. Roanoke will become a rallying cry for those worlds. And for the whole Colonial Union.† â€Å"You're saying we're worth more to the Colonial Union dead than alive,† I said. â€Å"We're worth more as a symbol than as a colony,† Dad said. â€Å"Which is inconvenient for those of us who live here and want to stay alive. But, yes. It's why they won't let the Obin help us. It's why we don't make the cut for resources.† â€Å"You know this for sure?† I asked. â€Å"Someone told you this when you went back to Phoenix Station?† â€Å"Someone did,† Dad said. â€Å"A man named General Szilard. He was Jane's former commanding officer. It was unofficial, but it matched up with my own internal math.† â€Å"And you trust him?† I asked. â€Å"No offense, but the Colonial Union hasn't exactly been on the up-and-up with us lately.† â€Å"I have my issues with Szilard,† Dad said. â€Å"And so does your mom. But yes. I trust him on this. Right now he's the only one in the whole Colonial Union I actually do trust.† â€Å"What does this have to with me leaving Roanoke?† I asked. â€Å"General Szilard told me something else when I saw him,† Dad said. â€Å"Also unofficial, but from good sources. He told me that General Gau, the Conclave leader – â€Å" â€Å"I know who he is, Dad,† I said. â€Å"I've been keeping up with current events.† â€Å"Sorry,† Dad said. â€Å"He said General Gau was being targeted for assassination by someone in his own close circle of advisors, and that the assassination would happen soon, probably in the next few weeks.† â€Å"Why'd he tell you this?† I asked. â€Å"So I could use it,† Dad said. â€Å"Even if the Colonial Union wanted to tell General Gau about the attempt – which it doesn't, since it probably would like to see it succeed – there's no reason to believe that Gau would consider it credible. The CU did just blow up his fleet. But Gau might listen to the information if it came from me, because he's already had dealings with me.† â€Å"And you were the one who begged him not to bring his fleet to Roanoke,† I said. â€Å"Right,† Dad said. â€Å"It's because of that we've been attacked as little as we have. General Gau said to me that neither he nor the Conclave would retaliate against Roanoke itself for what happened to the fleet.† â€Å"We were still attacked,† I said. â€Å"But not by the Conclave itself,† Dad said. â€Å"By someone else, testing our defenses. But if Gau is assassinated, that guarantee dies with him. And then it's open season on Roanoke, and we'll get hit, fast, because we're where the Conclave had its biggest defeat. We're a symbol for the Conclave, too. So we have to let General Gau know he's in danger. For our own sake.† â€Å"If you tell him this, you'll be giving information to an enemy of the Colonial Union,† I said. â€Å"You'll be a traitor.† Dad gave me a wry grin. â€Å"Trust me, Zoe,† he said. â€Å"I'm already neck-deep in trouble.† His smile disappeared. â€Å"And yes, General Gau is an enemy of the Colonial Union. But I think he might be a friend to Roanoke. Right now, Roanoke needs all the friends it can get, wherever it can get them. The ones we used to have are turning their backs on us. We're going out to this new one, hat in hand.† â€Å"And by we you mean me,† I said. â€Å"Yes,† Dad said. â€Å"I need you to deliver this message for me.† â€Å"You don't need me to do it,† I said. â€Å"You could do it. Mom could do it. It would be better from either of you.† Dad shook his head. â€Å"Neither Jane nor I can leave Roanoke, Zoe. The Colonial Union is watching us. They don't trust us. And even if we could, we can't leave because we belong here with the colonists. We're their leaders. We can't abandon them. Whatever happens to them happens to us too. We made a promise to them and we're going to stay and defend this colony, no matter what happens. You understand that.† I nodded. â€Å"So we can't go. â€Å"But you can, and secretly,† Dad said. â€Å"The Obin already want to take you off Roanoke. The Colonial Union will allow it because it's part of their treaty with the Obin, and as long as Jane and I stay here, it won't raise an eyebrow. The Obin are technically neutral in the fight between the Conclave and the Colonial Union; an Obin ship will be able to get to General Gau's headquarters where a ship from the Colonial Union couldn't.† â€Å"So send Hickory and Dickory,† I said. â€Å"Or just have the Obin send a skip drone to General Gau.† â€Å"It won't work,† Dad said. â€Å"The Obin are not going to jeopardize their relationship with the Colonial Union to pass messages for me. The only reason they're doing this at all is because I'm agreeing to let them take you off Roanoke. I'm using the only piece of leverage I have with the Obin, Zoe. That's you. â€Å"And there's something else. General Gau has to know that I believe the information I'm sending him is good. That I'm not just being a pawn again in a larger Colonial Union game. I need to give him a token of my sincerity, Zoe. Something that proves that I have as much to risk in sending him this information as he has in receiving it. Even if I or Jane could go ourselves, General Gau would have no reason to trust what we say to him, because he knows both Jane and I were soldiers and are leaders. He knows we would be willing to sacrifice ourselves for our colony. But he also knows that I'm not willing to sacrifice my only daughter. And neither is Jane. â€Å"So you see, Zoe. It has to be you. No one else can do it. You're the only one who can get to General Gau, deliver the message, and be believed. Not me, not Jane, not Hickory and Dickory. No one else. Just you. Deliver the message, and we might still find a way to save Roanoke. It's a small chance. But right now it's the only one we've got.† I sat there for a few minutes, taking in what Dad asked of me. â€Å"You know if Hickory and Dickory take me off Roanoke, they're not going to want to bring me back,† I said, finally. â€Å"You know that.† â€Å"I'm pretty sure of it,† Dad said. â€Å"You're asking me to leave,† I said. â€Å"You're asking me to accept that I might not ever see any of you again. Because if General Gau won't believe me, or if he's killed before I can talk to him, or even if he does believe me but can't do anything to help us, this trip won't mean anything. All it will do is get me off Roanoke.† â€Å"If that's all it did, Zoe, I still wouldn't complain,† Dad said, and then quickly held up his hand, to stop me from commenting on that. â€Å"But if that's all I thought it would do, I wouldn't ask you to do it. I know you don't want to leave Roanoke, Zoe. I know you don't want to leave us or your friends. I don't want anything bad to happen to you, Zoe. But you're also old enough now to make your own decisions. If when all was said and done you wanted to stay on Roanoke to face whatever came our way, I wouldn't try to stop you. Nor would Jane. We would be with you until the end. You know that.† â€Å"I do,† I said. â€Å"There are risks for everyone,† Dad said. â€Å"When Jane and I tell the Roanoke colony council about this – which we will do once you're gone – I'm pretty sure they are going to kick us out as the colony leaders. When news gets back to the Colonial Union, Jane and I are almost certainly going to be arrested on charges of treason. Even if everything goes perfectly, Zoe, and General Gau accepts your message and acts on it and maybe even makes sure that Roanoke stays unmolested, we will still have to pay for our actions. Jane and I accept this. We think it's worth it for a chance to keep Roanoke safe. The risk for you here, Zoe, is that if you do this, you might not see us or your friends again for a very long time, or at all. It's a big risk. It's a real risk. You have to decide whether it's one worth taking.† I thought about this some more. â€Å"How long do I have to think about this?† I asked. â€Å"All the time you need,† Dad said. â€Å"But those assassins aren't sitting around doing nothing.† I glanced over to where Hickory and Dickory had been. â€Å"How long do you think it will take them to get a transport here?† I asked. â€Å"Are you kidding?† Dad said. â€Å"If they didn't send for one the second I was done talking to them, I'll eat my hat.† â€Å"You don't wear a hat,† I said. â€Å"I will buy a hat and eat it, then,† Dad said. â€Å"I'm going to come back,† I said. â€Å"I'm going to take this message to General Gau, and then I'm going to get back here. I'm not sure how I'm going to convince the Obin of that, but I'm going to do it. I promise you, Dad.† â€Å"Good,† Dad said. â€Å"Bring an army with you. And guns. And battle cruisers.† â€Å"Guns, cruisers, army,† I said, running down the checklist. â€Å"Anything else? I mean, as long as I'm going shopping.† â€Å"Rumor is that I might be in the market for a hat,† Dad said. â€Å"Hat, right,† I said. â€Å"Make it a jaunty hat,† he said. â€Å"I promise nothing,† I said. â€Å"Fine,† Dad said. â€Å"But if you have to choose between the hat and the army, pick the army. And make it a good one. We're going to need it.† â€Å"Where is Gretchen?† Jane asked me. We stood outside the small Obin transport. I had already said good-bye to Dad. Hickory and Dickory waited for me inside the transport. â€Å"I didn't tell her I was leaving,† I said. â€Å"She is going to be very upset about that,† Mom said. â€Å"I don't intend to be away long enough for her to miss me,† I said. Mom didn't say anything to that. â€Å"I wrote her a note,† I said, finally. â€Å"It's scheduled for delivery tomorrow morning. I told her what I thought I could tell her about why I left. I told her to talk to you about the rest of it. So she might come by to see you.† â€Å"I'll talk to her about it,† Jane said. â€Å"I'll try to make her understand.† â€Å"Thanks,† I said. â€Å"How are you?† Mom asked. â€Å"I'm terrified,† I said. â€Å"I'm scared I'll never see you or Dad or Gretchen again. I'm scared I'm going to screw this up. I'm scared that even if I don't screw this up it won't matter. I feel like I'm going to pass out, and I've felt that way since this thing landed.† Jane gave me a hug and then looked to my neck, puzzled. â€Å"You're not taking your jade elephant pendant?† she said. â€Å"Oh,† I said. â€Å"It's a long story. Tell Gretchen I said for her to tell it to you. You need to know about it anyway.† â€Å"Did you lose it?† Jane asked. â€Å"It's not lost,† I said. â€Å"It's just not with me anymore.† â€Å"Oh,† Jane said. â€Å"I don't need it anymore,† I said. â€Å"I know who in this world loves me, and has loved me.† â€Å"Good,† Jane said. â€Å"What I was going to tell you is that as well as remembering who loves you, you should remember who you are. And everything about who you are. And everything about what you are.† â€Å"What I am,† I said, and smirked. â€Å"It's because of what I am that I'm leaving. What I am has been more trouble than it's worth, if you ask me.† â€Å"That doesn't surprise me,† Jane said. â€Å"I have to tell you, Zoe, that there have been times when I have felt sorry for you. So much of your life has been completely out of your control. You've lived your life under the gaze of an entire race of people, and they have made their demands on you right from the beginning. I'm always amazed you've stayed sane through all of it.† â€Å"Well, you know,† I said. â€Å"Good parents help.† â€Å"Thank you,† Jane said. â€Å"We tried to keep your life as normal as possible. And I think we've raised you well enough that I can tell you this and have you understand it: What you are has made demands of you all your life. Now it's time to demand something back. Do you understand?† â€Å"I'm not sure,† I said. â€Å"Who you are has always had to make room for what you are,† Jane said. â€Å"You know that.† I nodded. It had. â€Å"Part of that was because you were young, and what you are is so much larger than who you are,† Jane said. â€Å"You can't expect a normal eight-year-old or even a fourteen-year-old to understand what it means to be something like what you are. But you're old enough now to understand it. To get an appreciation for it. To know how you can use it, for something besides trying to stay up late.† I smiled, amazed that Jane remembered me trying to use the treaty to stay up past my bedtime. â€Å"I've watched you in the last year,† Jane said. â€Å"I've seen how you interact with Hickory and Dickory. They've imposed a lot on you because of what you are. All that training and practicing. But you've also started asking more of them. All those documents you've had them give you.† â€Å"I didn't know you knew about that,† I said. â€Å"I was an information officer,† Jane said. â€Å"This sort of thing is my job. My point is that you've become more willing to use that power. You are finally taking control of your life. What you are is starting to make room for who you are.† â€Å"It's a start,† I said. â€Å"Keep going,† Jane said. â€Å"We need who you are, Zoe. We need you to take what you are – every part of what you are – and use it to save us. To save Roanoke. And to come back to us.† â€Å"How do I do it?† I asked. Jane smiled. â€Å"Like I said: Demand something back,† she said. â€Å"That's unhelpfully vague,† I said. â€Å"Perhaps,† Jane said, and then kissed me on the cheek. â€Å"Or maybe I just have faith that you're smart enough to figure it out on your own.† Mom got a hug for that. Ten minutes later I was fifteen klicks above Roanoke and climbing, heading for an Obin transport, thinking about what Jane had said. â€Å"You will find that our Obin ships travel far more quickly than your Colonial Union ships,† Hickory said. â€Å"Is that right,† I said. I wandered over to where Hickory and Dickory had placed my luggage and picked out one of the suitcases. â€Å"Yes,† Hickory said. â€Å"Far more efficient engines and better artificial gravity management. We will reach skip distance from Roanoke in a little under two days. It would take one of your ships five or six days to reach the same distance.† â€Å"Good,† I said. â€Å"The sooner we get to General Gau the better.† I unzipped the suitcase. â€Å"This is a very exciting moment for us,† Hickory said. â€Å"This is the first time since you have lived with Major Perry and Lieutenant Sagan that you will meet other Obin in person.† â€Å"But they know all about me,† I said. â€Å"Yes,† Hickory said. â€Å"The recordings of the last year have made their way to all Obin, both in unedited and digest form. The unedited versions will take time to process.† â€Å"I'll bet,† I said. â€Å"Here we are.† I found what I was looking for: the stone knife, given to me by my werewolf. I had packed it quickly, when no one was looking. I was just making sure that I didn't imagine packing it. â€Å"You brought your stone knife,† Hickory said. â€Å"I did,† I said. â€Å"I have plans for it.† â€Å"What plans?† Hickory asked. â€Å"I'll tell you later,† I said. â€Å"But tell me, Hickory,† I said. â€Å"This ship we're going to. Is there anyone important on it?† â€Å"Yes,† Hickory said. â€Å"Because it is the first time that you have been in the presence of other Obin since you were a child, one of the members of Obin's governing council will be there to greet you. It very much wants to meet with you.† â€Å"Good,† I said, and glanced at the knife. â€Å"I very much want to meet with it, too.† I think I actually made Hickory nervous right then.

Marketing Micro and Macro Environmental Factors Essay

Macro and micro environments both fall into the categories of environmental scanning. The general scope of environmental scanning is that it is a component of global environmental analysis. While analyses are typically carried out on the macro environment, the micro environment still has an important role to play. In summary, the macro environment is involved with the industries, companies, markets, clients and competitors, while the micro environment can be represented by the suppliers, competitors and customers. Macro Environment These are the major external and uncontrollable factors that influence an organization’s decision making, and affect its performance and strategies.The macro environment is typically segmented for the reasons of analysis. This analysis, commonly referred to as a PESTLE analysis, allows researchers to look at the main six environmental factors that affect a business. These factors are political, economical, technological, environmental, legal and social. Each of these factors indirectly affects the company but the company cannot control them. Instead the company is required to adapt to these factors in the most efficient way possible. The results of this analysis allow the company to see where their strengths are when adapting to the macro environment and where they could improve on their methods. 1. Economic Environment: Economic environment of business has reference to the board characteristics of the economic system in which the business operates. The business sector has economic relation with the government, capital market; household sector and global sector. These sectors together influence the trends and structure of the economy. The form and functioning of the economy vary widely. The important external factors that affect the economic environment of a business are; (i)Economic Conditions: – The general Economic conditions prevailing in the country viz. national income, per capita income, economic resources, distribution of income and assets, economic development etc. are important determinants of the business strategies. Business cycles and economic growth of the economy are important factors defining the economic environment. (ii)The economic system operating in the country also affects the business enterprise to a very great extent. The economic system of a country may be capitalist, socialist, communist or mixed. (iii)Economic Policies: – The government decides the economic environment of business through Budges, Industrial regulations, Economic planning, Import and Export regulations, Business laws, Industrial policy, Control on prices and wages, Trade and transport policies, the size of the national Income, Demand & supply of various goods etc. (iv)Economic Growth: – The stage of economic growth of the economy has direct impact on the business strategies. Increased economic growth rate and increase in consumption expenditure, lower the general pressure within an industry and offers more opportunities then threats. (v)The rate of interest affects the demand for the products in the economy, particularly when general goods are to be purchased through borrowed finance. Low interest rated provides opportunities to the industries to expand whereas rising interest rates pose a threat to these institutions. (vi)Currency Exchange: – Current exchange rates have direct impact on the business environment. When the rupee was devalued in 1991, it was to make Indian products cheaper in the world market and consequently boost India’s exports. 2. Political and Governmental Environment: Political environment refers to the influence exerted by the three political institutions they are; Legislature, Executive, Judiciary etc. The legislature decides on a particular course of action. Government is the executive and its job is to implement whatever was decided by parliament. The judiciary has ensure that both the legislature and executive function in public interest and within the boundaries of constitution. Legal and political environment provides a framework within the business is to function and its existence depends on the success with which it can face the various challenges constructed out of political and legal framework. 3. Socio-cultural Environment: Changes in social trends can impact on the demand for a firm’s products and the availability and willingness of individuals to work. Social class and caste of a person goes a long way in deciding the business activities in relation to its production and marketing activities. Tradition, customs and social attitudes have changed the attitude and beliefs of the persons which have their effect on organizational environment. Class and caste are influencing the purchasing pattern. Socio-cultural environment may include expectations of the society from business, attitudes of society towards business and its management, views towards achievement of work, views towards structure, responsibility and organizational positions, views towards customs, traditional and conventional, class structure and labor mobility and level of education. 4. Natural Environment: Environmental factors include the weather and climate change. Changes in temperature can impact on many industries including farming, tourism and insurance. With major climate changes occurring due to global warming and with greater environmental awareness this external factor is becoming a significant issue for firms to consider. The growing desire to protect the environment is having an impact on many industries such as the travel and transportation industries for example, more taxes being placed on air travel and the success of hybrid cars, and the general move towards more environmentally friendly products and processes is affecting demand patterns and creating business opportunities. 5. Demographic Environment: Demographic factor include Size, growth rate, age composition, sex composition etc. of population, Family size, Economic stratification of population, Educational level, Caste, religion etc. All these demographic factors are relevant to business. These factors affect the demand for goods and services. High population growth rate indicates an enormous increase in labor supply. Population with varied tastes, preferences, beliefs, temperaments etc. gives rise to differing demand pattern and calls for different marketing strategies. 6. Technological Environment: In order to survive in today’s competitive world, a business has to adopt technological changes from time to time. New technologies create new products and new processes. Technology can reduce costs, improve quality and lead to innovation. These developments can benefit consumers as well as the organizations providing the products. MP3 players, computer games, online gambling and high definition TVs are all new markets created by technological advances. Online shopping, bar coding and computer aided design are all improvements to the way we do business as a result of better technology. 7. International Environment: Another environmental factor which is fast emerging as the force to reckon with is the international environment. Implications of global or international environment are; (i)Due to liberalization, Indian companies are forced to view business issues from the global perspective. (ii)Safe and protected markets are no longer there. World is becoming small in size due to advanced means of transport and communication facilities. (iii)Learning of foreign languages is must for every business manager. (iv)Acquiring familiarity with foreign currencies is also must. (v)Facing political and legal uncertainties is inevitable. Micro Environment Micro environmental factors are internal factors close to a business that have a direct impact on its strategy. . Within the micro environment it is important that the layout of the physical infrastructure is focused on competitiveness. These factors include: Customers Organizations’ survive on the basis of meeting customer needs and wants and providing benefits for their customers. Failure to do so will result in a failed business strategy. As all businesses need customers, they should be customer oriented. Employees Employing the correct staff and keeping staff motivated is an essential part of an organization’s strategic planning process. Training and development play a critical role in achieving a competitive edge; especially in service sector marketing. This is clearly apparent in the airline industry, where customer services is crucial in obtaining a competitive edge. Employing staff with relevant skills and experience is essential. This process begins at recruitment stage and continues throughout an employee’s employment via ongoing training and promotion opportunities. If a business employs staff without motivation, skills or experience it will affect customer service and ultimately sales. Suppliers Suppliers provide businesses with the materials they need to carry out their business activities. A supplier’s behavior will directly impact the business it supplies. For example if a supplier provides a poor service this could increase timescales or lower product quality. An increase in raw material prices will affect an organization’s marketing mix strategy and may even force price increases. Close supplier relationships are an effective way to remain competitive and secure quality products. Shareholders As organisations require inward investment to grow, they may decide to move from private to public ownership and list on the stock market. The introduction of public shareholders brings new pressures as public shareholders want a return from the money they have invested in the company. Shareholder pressure to increase profits will affect organisational strategy. Relationships with shareholders need to be managed carefully as rapid short term increases in profit could detrimentally affect the long term success of the business. Media Positive media attention can make an organisation or its products and negative media attention can break an organisation. Organisations need to manage the media so that the media help promote the positive things about the organisation and reduce the impact of a negative event on their reputation. Some organisations will even employ public relations (PR) consultants to help them manage a particular event or incident. Consumer television programs with a wide and more direct audience can also have a very powerful impact on the success of an organisation. Some businesses recognise this and will change their reaction when consumers mention that they are going to contact a consumer television programme or the newspapers about the business. Competitors The name of the game in marketing is differentiation. Can the organisation offer benefits that are better than those offered by competitors? Does the business have a unique selling point (USP)? Competitor analysis and monitoring is crucial if an organisation is to maintain or improve its position within the market. If a business is unaware of its competitor’s activities they will find it very difficult to â€Å"beat† their competitors. The market can move very quickly for example through a change in trading conditions, consumer behavior or technological developments. As a business it is important to examine competitors’ responses to these changes so that you can maximise the impact of your response

Charlotte Corday Assassin of Marat

Charlotte Corday killed the activist and intellectual  Jean Paul Marat in his bath.  Though she was herself from a noble family, she had come to be a  supporter of the French Revolution opposed to the Reign of Terror.  She lived  July 27, 1768 - July 17, 1793. Childhood Fourth child of a noble family, Charlotte Corday was the daughter of  Jacques-Francois de Corday dArmont, a noble with a family connection to playwright Pierre Corneille, and  Charlotte-Marie Gautier des Authieux, who died April 8, 1782, when Charlotte was not quite 14 years old. Charlotte Corday had been sent with her sister, Eleonore, to a convent in Caen, Normandy, called Abbaye-aux-Dames, after her mothers death in 1782. Corday learned about the French Enlightenment in the library of the convent. French Revolution Her learning led her to support representative democracy and a constitutional republic as the French Revolution broke out in 1789 when the Bastile was stormed.  Her two brothers, on the other hand, joined an army that tried to suppress the Revolution.   In 1791, in the midst of the Revolution, the convent school closed. She and her sister went to live with an aunt in Caen.  Charlotte Corday had, like her father, supported the monarchy, but as the Revolution unfolded, cast her lot with the Girondists.   The moderate Girondists and the radical Jacobins were competing  Republican parties. The Jacobins banned the Girondists from Paris and began executions of members of that party.  Many Girondists fled to Caen in May, 1793.  Caen became a kind of haven for the Girondists escaping the radical Jacobins who had decided on a strategy of eliminating the more moderate dissenters. As they carried out executions, this phase of the Revolution became known as the Reign of Terror. Assassination of Marat Charlotte Corday was influenced by the Girondists and came to believe that the Jacobin publisher, Jean Paul Marat, who had been calling for the execution of Girondists, should be killed. She left Caen for Paris on July 9, 1793, and while staying in Paris wrote an Address to the French Who Are Friends of Law and Peace to explain her planned actions. On July 13, Charlotte Corday bought a wooden handled table knife and then went to Marats home, claiming to have information for him. At first she was refused a meeting, but then she was admitted. Marat was in his bathtub, where he often sought relief from a skin condition. Corday was immediately captured by Marats associates. She was arrested and then quickly tried and convicted by the Revolutionary Tribunal. Charlotte Corday was guillotined on July 17, 1793, wearing her baptismal certificate pinned to her dress so that her name would be known. Legacy Cordays action and execution had little if any effect on the continued executions of Girondists, though it served as a symbolic outcry against the extremes to which the Reign of Terror had gone.  Her execution of Marat was commemorated in many works of art. ​Places: Paris, France; Caen, Normandy, France Religion: Roman Catholic Also known as:  Marie Anne Charlotte Corday DArmont, Marie-Anne Charlotte de Corday dArmont